The August 1st US Tariff Realignment: Winners, Losers, and Global Trade Uncertainty

The US imposed new tariff rates on its trading partners on July 31^st as the White House published the ‘Further Modifying the Reciprocal Tariff Rates’. This data story brings about a marked change from the previous methodology which involved calculating tariffs based on the level of bilateral trade deficit with the US. The tariff rates now seem to calibrated at regional levels, with the Asian region facing higher tariff rates than other regions. On one hand, certain countries also face higher tariff rates due to poor bilateral relationship with the US. On the other hand, the US has signed FTAs with several countries and some of them, but not all, have been awared with lower tariffs than their regional counterparts. Some countries have been provided with concessions based on their bilateral relationships with the US as well. However, the tariff rates continue to be uncertain as trading partners enter into negotiation with the US government to seek relief. This data story presents the tariff rates in two figures, the first one depicting the tariff rates on August 1st and the second one showing the change in tariff rates from July 7^th, when letters had been sent by the Trump adminstration to trading partners, and August 1^st, when the new tariff rates were implemented. Tariff rates set on April 2^nd are considered for those countries to which letters by the Trump administration had not been sent by July 7^th.

Figure 1

The figure reports the tariffs on August 1^st applied on the trading partners, sorting them by the size of the imports from them into the US. The European Union, Japan and South Korea were the largest trading partners listed in the ‘Further Modifying the Reciprocal Tariff Rates’ published on July 31^st 2025. They all face  a tariff of 15% each. Vietnam, the fourth largest trading partner, faces a tariff of 20%, while India faces a tariff of 25%. India is also likely to face unspecified ‘punitive’ tariffs. Pakistan faces a tariff of 19%, while Bangladesh and Sri Lanka both face a tariff of 20%. Several South-east Asian countries face a tariff of 19%. Several African and European countries face a tariff of 15%, while Switzerland stands out at 39% and Libya, Algeria and South Africa face a tariff of 30%. Latin American economies face a tariff of 15% as well, with Nicaragua facing a higher tariff rate of 18%.

Considering the regional blocs in the figure, several of the South-east Asian countries and Pakistan face a tariff of 19%, while South Asian countries and Vietnam are facing a tariff of 20%. However, India faces a higher value of 25%. Therefore, the 1% concession to Pakistan brings it at par with the South-east Asian countries, while the 1% penalty to Vietnam sets its tariffs at the same value as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.   The BRICS countries have faced a higher tariffs than other countries. Although, Brazil is listed at 10%, its tariffs are likely to increase to 50% on August 6^th. China faces a complex web of new tariffs across its products.

Figure 2

The figure reports the change in tariffs between July7th 2025 and August 1^st 2025. The tariffs are ranked according to the level reported on July 7^th 2025. Sri Lanka had the highest tariffs at 44%, which was reduced to 20% on August 1^st. Similarly, Guyana had tariffs of 38% which was reduced to 15%. Bangladesh faced tariffs of 35% in July 2025, while Indonesia and Angola faced tariffs of 32% in July 2025. Interestingly, larger reductions in tariffs were awarded to countries which faced original tariff rates of more than 30%. On the other hand, Switzerland experienced an increase in tariffs of 8% as its tariffs on August 1^st was set at 39%. Pakistan was awarded a reduction of 10%, which was the same awarded to Japan and South Korea. Countries which previously has 10% tariff rates, such as Turkey, New Zealand, Costa Rica and Ecuador reported an increase of 5%. Again, this could be a strategy to calibrate their tariffs with their regional counterparts.

The implementation of new US tariffs on August 1st marks a departure from previous trade policy. The White House has moved away from a model based on bilateral trade deficits, adopting a more ambiguous but strategic approach that calibrates tariffs regionally and seemingly based on the status of bilateral relationships. Although, several countries in the Asian region run a trade surplus with the US, their tariffs are now more or less equal across the region. This pivot has created a complex landscape of winners and losers. While several nations that faced exceptionally high tariffs in July, such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, received significant reductions, a few experienced increases. Ultimately, as countries continue to negotiate for relief and with the potential for further dramatic changes, the new framework still injects considerable uncertainty into the future of global trade.